电力市场效率评估与碳市场价格设计——基于电碳市场关联视角下的传导率估计

厘清并量化电力市场与碳市场间的关联关系,是深化电力市场改革与实现"双碳"目标的重要抓手。本文基于2006—2018年中国100个地级及以上城市的面板数据,使用似不相关回归模型评估了电力市场效率,在此基础上研究了电、碳市场关联条件下碳价对电价的传导率,并对不同场景下全国碳市场的碳价进行了优化设计。研究发现:(1)与非试点地区相比,碳市场试点地区中电力市场的无谓损失率更低,并且市场效率的提高具有更高的碳减排作用。(2)电、碳市场关联条件下,碳价对电力市场中居民电价的传导率高于对工业电价的传导率,但均远低于完全竞争条件下的传导率水平。(3)传导率的提升能够缓解"降电价"与"碳减排"之间的矛盾。当前传导率下电力市场效率目标与碳减排目标的协同实现需要碳价的大幅提升,而在完全传导的理想情况下最优碳价约为40元/吨。(4)长期而言,当前传导率下碳排放总量下降场景、经济增速放缓场景对应的最优碳价分别为255.05元/吨、173.63元/吨,而人口老龄化场景并未对最优碳价的设置形成约束。本文的研究不仅为电力市场与碳市场之间的关联奠定了理论基础,也为全国碳市场价格机制的优化设计提供了政策参考。     

高管连锁网络与股价同步性

本文以2009—2018年中国A股上市公司为研究样本,考察了高管连锁网络对公司股价同步性的影响。研究发现：高管连锁网络会提高公司的股价同步性,处于高管连锁网络越中心位置的上市公司,其股价同步性越高;从趋同性和信息透明度两个方面进一步分析高管连锁网络对股价同步性的作用机制,发现高管连锁网络并非通过降低公司透明度这一途径对股价同步性产生影响,而是因为连锁高管加强了上市公司间的行为学习、信息和资源的共享,促使公司间基础特征趋同,进而提高了公司的股价同步性;根据联结类型的不同将高管连锁网络划分为董事网络、监事网络和高管网络,实证结果表明高管网络对股价同步性的提升效应最大,董事网络次之,监事网络对股价同步性无显著影响;区分产权性质和法治环境后发现,在国有企业和所处法治环境较差的企业中,高管连锁网络提高股价同步性的效应更显著。研究结论为提升资本市场信息效率提供了理论支撑。     

国有商业银行股权转让定价方法的研究

国有商业银行股权转让价格的合理性一直受到质疑,文中通过对现行定价方法适用性以及国有商业银行的价值分析,提出国有商业银行股权转让价格应包括其财务价值和未来收益能力这两个方面.     

水信息披露、机构投资者与股价同步性

基于2010-2016年中国A股高水敏感行业的322家上市公司数据,实证检验水信息披露对股价同步性的影响,以及机构投资者的调节效应。研究表明：水信息披露对股价同步性的影响呈倒U型,且在民营企业样本中尤其显著。在国有企业样本中,机构投资者的加入能促使水信息披露更好地融入股价;在民营企业样本中,只有在高水信息披露水平下,机构投资者才能更好地发挥调节作用。     

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Housing-Purchase Restrictions on Housing Prices in China

This paper examines the level and volatility effect of monetary policy on housing prices in China utilizing a novel set of housing price indices constructed by (Fang, H., QuanlinGu, W. X., & Zhou, L.-A. (2015). Demystifying the Chinese housing boom. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30. University of Chicago Press.). We find that in the long-run, average housing prices react positively to inflation, money supply and bank lending growth, and negatively to the reserve requirement ratio and benchmark lending rate. Housing prices in Tier 1 cities respond more sensitively to monetary shocks relative to Tier 2 and 3 cities, possibly due to surging demand and limited supply under housing-purchase restrictions (HPR). We further study the volatility effect of monetary shocks using the GARCH model and find that the benchmark lending rate, reserve requirement ratio and money supply growth have strong negative impact on the volatility of housing price growth. Our benchmark results remain robust after incorporating the HPR policy variable in the estimation, with a significant negative effect of HPR on housing price growth in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Lastly, we conclude with recommendations on future monetary policy design and implementation, with a specific focus on the heterogeneous characteristics of China’s housing market.     

Security design,market risk and round quotes in the treasury bond market

Prior literature finds that the tendency of price-endings to cluster on rounder fractions increases with price volatility. We estimate the separate influences and relative importance of the determinants of price volatility, security design and market risks. Our data is from a market setting that is ideal for isolating and studying the relations of interest. Results for both quote and trade prices indicate that the tendency to use round price-endings increases with both a security’s inherent risk, attributable to security design, and variation over time in market risks. Security design influences clustering more than market risks, but market risks are influential in determining clustering once security design is fixed. The estimated effects are strongest in the on-the-run market segment where liquidity facilitates the aggregation of information into price.     

EPC项目投标报价方法及影响因素研究

我国EPC总承包商在投标报价时面临设计深度不足、施工过程不确定性大等风险,导致其投标报价的难度相较于传统承发包模式更大,为保证总承包企业在EPC项目中能够获得最佳的收益,本文在EPC总承包项目投标报价特征的基础上,分析投标报价的内容及其计算方法,并对EPC总承包项目投标报价的影响因素进行识别与阐述,最后辅以工程实例进行说明。研究结论为总承包企业在EPC项目中的投标报价起借鉴作用,进而促进我国EPC总承包模式的健康发展。     

柴油紧缺对国内物流业的影响及对策

近来,国内柴油紧缺,油价飚升,对长期使用柴油货车的货运业来说可是一大冲击,致使国内从事物流业的企业处于微利状态,运营成本多了5%～6%,利润将被吃掉了两成。国内物流业处于半瘫痪状态.或许这将促使国内物流业重新洗牌,从而促使物流业最终走向集约化、规模化。     

对外贸易中行业自律定价行为的博弈分析

当前我国经济生活中存在的一个突出的现象是价格战与行业自律定价并存。从中国参与出口的同质企业所结成的价格卡特尔表明:出口企业追求利润最大化行为的结果必然陷入"囚徒困境",表现为价格大战;在没有外在强制力量时,企业尽管可以相互依存,仍然走不出困境;如果惩罚条款这一承诺行动可以置信,则出现合作均衡;优势企业也可促使合作均衡的出现。     

Pricing dynamics in US fresh produce channels: new empirical evidence

Despite many valuable contributions, prior research has not completely explained retail pricing behavior. This study employs scanner data for 36 fresh produce items analyzing the relationship between costs of goods sold and retail prices to provide further insight into retail pricing behavior. Implications include: (1) where ‘natural’ variation in produce prices do not already exist from the supplier, retailers appear to introduce the variation themselves, independent from shipping point price; and (2) to the extent that supplier-retailer contracts for fresh produce develop, the resulting stabilizing influence on costs may have the preserve effect of increasing retail price variability to consumers.